Neville Prior

The World Order

Neville Prior  21 January 2015 08:43:35 AM
Image:The World Order
Woke up this morning and got to pondering the order of the world. Quite fun thinking up scenarios whilst shaving or washing ones hair. Anyway, I was thinking about the fact that business leaders are betting on the US and not China to be the engine of growth in 2015, (first time since 2010), and started to think about the world in general, and would the US stay in that position?

Right now we see the US muscling up to Russia with sanctions, and Europe following along. Result is little pain to the US, but significant pain to Europe, both in trade and energy security. We also see the oil rich states of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait etc. creating a very low oil price, which could last for 3 years according to BP. Result is that the US has a bit of pain regarding fracking, Europe can barely get fracking out of the door, Iran suffers, and Russia also suffers because of the oil price. We also see China with its economy facing some issues around manufacturing growth, access to plentiful energy and a property driven debt bubble.

The outcome of all this, is that the US is currently strong, Europe is in a right old mess, the oil producing states of the middle-east are having a laugh at the expense of most of the world, and Russia is wondering what to do.

Here comes the scenario, (of course one of many) => Russia turns its back on the west, and faces east. A broad Sino-Rus alliance opens up, giving Russia a ready market for its energy and resources, and China a long-term source of energy and resources. Chinese manufacturing continues to blossom with Russia following in its wake, whilst Europe and the US start to falter. This creates the new power block reaching right across Asia. In the interim, the UK will have left the EU, and countries such as India, Nigeria, Brazil etc. are looking for their place in the world. A second alliance forms involving the UK, India, Nigeria, Canada, Australia, Brazil, Japan : in other words a strong commonwealth with some other nations in partnership, that has a very strong package of financial services, resources, energy, agriculture and manufacturing. The US probably stands alone.................

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